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Wednesday, July 29, 2009

Assessment of Arroyo Administration’s Economic Performance vs. SONA 2001 Targets

This information is sourced out from IBON Foundation entitled "Assessment of Arroyo Administration’s Economic Performance vs. SONA 2001 Targets"

The last eight years of the Arroyo administration have resulted in record joblessness, deteriorating quality of jobs, falling household incomes, increasing poverty, fiscal crisis, unprecedented debt and debt service, social service cutbacks, and deeper Philippine underdevelopment.

Economic growth has been relatively higher compared to previous administrations. Growth in gross domestic product (GDP) during the Arroyo administration (2001-08) averaged 4.9% annually compared to 4.6% under Aquino (1986-91), 3.1% under Ramos 3.1% (1992-98) and 3.9% under Estrada (1999-2000). Yet the economy has become even more distorted under the Arroyo administration and the gains from this growth and economic policy in general have gone to a few and not been felt by the largest number of the Filipino people. (Read below for comparison of targets versus actual results)

Targets from Pres. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s State of the Nation Address, July 23, 2001

Actual performance

“Our challenge is clear: sugpuin ang kahirapan.”

o 530,642 increase in the number of poor families between 2000 and 2006 – to 4.7 million poor families in 2006. (NSCB, using low official poverty lines)

o 2.1 million increase in the number of poor Filipinos between 2000 and 2006 – to 27.6 million in 2006. (NSCB, using low official poverty lines)

o Meanwhile the net income of the Top 1000 corporations in the Philippines increased 490% between 2001 and 2007, from P116 billion to P686 billion. (BW)

o In 2006, the net worth of just the 20 richest Filipinos – including close Arroyo allies Lucio Tan, Enrique Razon, Jr., Eduardo Cojuangco, Enrique Aboitiz and others – was P801 billion (US$15.6 billion), which was equivalent to the combined income for the year of the poorest 10.4 million Filipino families. (Forbes Asia, NSCB)

“The way to fight poverty is to create jobs, not destroy them.”

o The period 2001-2008 is the longest period of sustained high unemployment in the country’s history – the true unemployment rate averaged some 11.2 percent. (NSO, IBON estimates)

o 621,000 increase in unemployment between Jan-01 and Apr-09 – to 4.2 million. (NSO, IBON estimates)

o 1.9 million increase in underemployment between Jan-01 and Apr-09 – to 6.6 million. (NSO)

o Combined unemployment and underemployment increased 2.5 million between Jan-01 and Apr-09 – to 10.8 million. (NSO, IBON estimates)

o The quality of jobs has worsened: merely part-time work increased by 5.9 million and now accounts for 14.3 million or two out of five of all jobs. Moreover, those “with jobs but not working” more than doubled and increased by 489,000 to reach 839,000. (NSO)

o The period 2001-2008 has seen the most Filipinos forced abroad to find jobs in the country’s history – deployments averaged 990,000 annually compared to 469,709 (Aquino), 713,505 (Ramos) and 839,324 (Estrada); some 1.24 million were deployed last year or 3,400 Filipinos leaving every day. (POEA) There are over 9 million Filipinos forced to find work abroad. (DFA-CFO)

"Dapat din tugunan ang karaingan ng madla sa mahal na bilihin at kulang na sahod.”

o The gap between the NCR minimum wage and the family living wage more than doubled to P535 in 2008 (NCR minimum wage P382, family living wage P917) from just P257 in 2001 (NCR minimum wage P252, family living wage P509). (DOLE, NWPC)

o Nominal minimum wages are stagnant and barely able to even just keep up with inflation. While nominal wages in NCR seem to have increased from P252 in 2001 to P382 in 2008 – or a P130 increase – the true increase is worth just P12 because of inflation. (DOLE, IBON estimates)

“To reduce excessive friction in labor and management relations, we will go the extra mile to work for industrial peace.”

o Since 2001, 62 workers have been extra-judicially killed and 15 others forcibly disappeared. (Karapatan). There have also been 1,478 cases of trade union human rights violations with 116,356 victims. (CTUHR).

“With regard to the fiscal sector, we will control the budget deficit by collecting taxes vigorously and spending money prudently.”

o The cumulative national government deficit from 2001 to May 2009 is P1.29 trillion – triple the deficits of the Aquino, Ramos and Estrada administrations combined. (BTr)

o The Arroyo administration has paid P4.8 trillion in debt service since 2001 – this is two-and-a-half times the P1.8 billion in debt payments made over 15 years by the Aquino, Ramos and Estrada administrations combined. (BTr)

o Yet government debt has continued to rise to P4.23 trillion in March 2009 which is almost double the P2.17 trillion debt inherited from the Estrada government. The administration has effectively been borrowing an additional P256.8 million annually since coming to power. (BTr)

“A social bias toward the disadvantaged to balance our economic development plan. Pagkalinga sa mga bahagi ng lipunan na naiwanan ng kaunlaran.”

o The Arroyo administration (2001-09) allotted only 15.1% of the national budget to education which is lower than under Estrada (18%, 1999-2000) and Ramos (16.6%, 1992-98). (DBM)

o To health, it allotted only 1.8% of the national budget which is lower than under Estrada (2.4%), Ramos (2.5%) and Aquino (3.1%, 1986-1991). (DBM)

o To housing, it allotted only 0.4% of the national budget which is lower than under Estrada (1.0%), Ramos (0.7%) and Aquino (0.5%). (DBM)

o In 2009, the Arroyo administration is only spending P6 per Filipino per day on education, P1 on health and 12 centavos – while paying the equivalent of P21 on debt service. (IBON computations on DBM data)

“Increase the chances of Filipino children finishing school… [karunungan] para sa masa”

o The number of out-of-school children and youth increased by 2.45 million between school year 2000-01 and 2008-09 – consisting of an additional 1.62 million children aged 7-12 years old and an additional 822,097 children aged 13-16 years old – to reach a total of 4.69 million. (DepED)

o The number of elementary-age out-of-school children increased by 1.62 million between school year 2000-01 and 2008-09 to a total of 2.04 million.

o The number of high school-age out-of-school youth increased by 822,097 between school year 2000-01 and 2008-09 to a total of 2.66 million.

o 1.95 million of these children and youth – consisting of 1.59 million of the elementary-age children and 360,000 of the high-school age children – are directly due to the deterioration of participation rates during the Arroyo administration. (IBON computations on DepED data) Elementary school participation rate dropped from 96.8% in school year 2000-01 to 85.1% in 2008-08; the high school participation rate dropped from 66.1% to 60.7% over the same period. (DepED)

“There can be a million new jobs in agriculture and fisheries [within the year]… I don’t want the one million new jobs to come in the long term.”

o Only an average of 258,200 agricultural jobs have been created annually in the last eight years – from 10.25 million agricultural sector jobs in 2000, the year before Arroyo came to power, to 12.32 million in 2008. (NSO)

o The agriculture sector has fallen to its smallest share in gross domestic product (GDP) in the country’s history – 18.1% (2008). (NSCB)

“Sisikapin nating magkaroon ng rice self-sufficiency.”

o Rice imports increased 280% from 639,000 tons in 2001 to a record 2.4 million tons in 2008. (DA)

"Murang bigas at masaganang magsasaka.”

o The price of rice increased 68% between 2000, the year before Arroyo came to power, and 2008: of regular milled rice to P29.38 per kilo (from P17.59) and of well milled rice to P32.71 per kilo (from P19.45 in 2000). (DA)

“Bawat taon, mamahagi ang gobyerno ng dalawandaang libong ektarya para sa reporma sa lupa: 100,000 of private land and 100,000 hectares of public land, including 100 ancestral domain titles for indigenous peoples.”

o The Department of Agrarian Reform (DAR) of the Arroyo administration distributed an average of 119,301 hectares annually (2001-2008) which is smaller than under Estrada (121,274 ha., 1999-2000), Ramos (296,395 ha., 1993-1998) and Aquino (169,063 ha., 1987-1992). (No equivalent data available for land distributed by the DENR)

“Information and communications technology (ICT) will jumpstart our old stalling economy and make it leapfrog into the new economy.”

o The Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) industry rapidly grew from 5,600 employees and US$56 million in revenues in 2001 to 372,000 employees and US$6.1 billion in revenues in 2008. (NEDA) But in 2008 the sector still accounted for just 1.1% of total employment and only some 2% of gross domestic product (GDP). (IBON computations on NSCB data)

o The manufacturing sector has meanwhile shrunk to as small as in the 1950s – 23.1% of GDP (2008). (NSCB) The sector lost 51,000 jobs between Jan-01 (2,885,000 jobs) and Apr-09 (2,834,000). (NSO)

“Kumikilos ang gobyerno upang mapigilan ang pagtaas ng presyo ng mga pangunahing pangangailangan ng manggagawa. Binabantayan ang presyo ng langis,”

o The price of diesel rose 220% between 2001 (average P13.96 per liter) and 2008 (P44.31) and of gasoline by 180% (from P16.58 to P45.92). (IBON monitoring)

o The peso price per liter of Dubai crude has increased by an average of P0.16 per month since January 2001 – yet the pump price of diesel has increased by an average of P0.26 per month, which is excessive even if the effect of the RVAT law since November 2005 is factored in. (IBON)

”Damihan ang kategoriya ng manggagawang hindi na kailangang magbayad ng buwis.”

o On average, every Filipino 15 years old and over paid the government an extra P5,059 in taxes over the last three years (2006-2008). This is equivalent to the additional P287.0 billion in taxes paid by Filipinos due to the imposition of RVAT in Nov 2005. (DOF) (IBON computations)

“Reduce corruption in the executive branch… investigate and prosecute corruption in high places… reduce corruption among elective officials… no one is above the law.”

o The total amount of kickbacks, ill-gotten wealth and payoffs involved in just 16 major corruption cases reaches as much as P20.9 billion (US$430 million). The amount remains substantial even if the interrupted NBN-ZTE and Cyber-Education deals are excluded. (Pagbabago! Research Working Group)

“We will enhance our relations with the United States, whose economic and military power continues to make it important as a factor in the affairs of the region and the nation.”

o Since 2002 up to 500 US Special Forces personnel have been permanently deployed in Mindanao in a “forward operating base”, supported and participated in combat operations, as well as built fixed facilities. In addition over 40,000 US soldiers have come into the country to Albay, Basilan, Batanes, Capiz, Cavite, Cebu, Nueva Ecija, Laguna, Leyte, Masbate, Palawan, Pampanga, Bataan, Sorsogon, Sulu, Tarlac, Quezon and Zamboanga for just the largest “exercises” such as the annual Balikatan. This does not yet include scores of other smaller exercises – there were for instance 163 exercises just in 2008 – nor concealed operations. (IBON monitoring)

Sources: Bureau of Treasury (BTr), Department of Agriculture (DA), Department of Budget and Management (DBM), Department of Education (DepED), Department of Foreign Affairs-Commission on Filipinos Overseas (DFA-CFO), National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB), National Statistics Office (NSO), National Wages and productivity Council (NWPC), Philippine Overseas Employment Administration (POEA), BusinessWorld Top 100 Corporations, Forbes Asia, Center for Trade Union Human Rights (CTUHR), Karapatan and Pagbabago! Research Working Group.

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